Weather Report for Flooded Regions in Myanmar

Meteorologist: Marc de Keyser
Contact: marc.achiel@gmail.com or mobile +32 473 72 76 41
Date: 21 August 2015
Forecast valid for the 21th of August - based on the 20/00utc run

Synoptic situation

We can see two main low pressure features on the Synoptic map for SE Asia: the first one is the low pressure belt over North India which extends Eastwards towards the North of the Bay of Bengal and Northwestern Myanmar. The second low pressure feature is the tropical cyclone which currently can be found neat the North of the Philippines and will track Northwards during the next 24 hours. Once this feature is East of Taiwan it will move Eastwards again. So there is no danger for Myanmar to be hit by this tropical cyclone.

What will happen is that those two low pressure feature will connect somewhere near Myanmar, which pushes away the high pressure ridge that gave us a few days of stable weather.

So today and tomorrow we will have cyclonic conditions which means that convective clouds will develop which will result in showery and thundery outbreaks at most inland locations of Myanmar.

Distribution of rain, showers and thunderstorms:

- between 00-06utc:
during the first hours of the day most inland areas are dry, except for the district of Shan and Sagaing where some isolated rain/showers may develop. There is a lot of precipitation along the coastal areas of the district of Rakhaing, especially towards the northern parts of this area. Also over the coastal areas of the districts of Ayeyarwaddy, Mon and Tanintharyi there is rain and showery rain; Take in account that during the second part of this period, due to diurnal heating convective clouds form and this will result in frequent showery outbreaks over most inland locations.
- between 06-12utc:
during this period a lot of inland convective activity with showery and local thundery outbreaks. This can happen at most inland locations, but especially the district of Shan will get a lot of precipitation. The rain along the coasts grows a little less but there is still rain over the North of Rakhaing and along the districts of Mon and Tanintharyi
- between 12-18utc:
most convective activity will gradually die out and showery and thundery outbreaks become less intense and frequent , eventually ceasing almost everywhere. We can see that the intensity of rainfall increases again over the coastal areas: again along the whole of the coastline of Myanmar there is intense rainfall-especially over the coast of the districts of Rakhaing and Mon.
- between 18-24utc:
most inland location are dry at this moment, except for the district of Sagaing where still some isolated showers may develop. Rain fall stays important along the coastal areas of Myanmar. There are a few real active cells developing over the Bay of Bengal, one of the is moving by the end of this period towards the South of the district of Ayeyarwaddy and an other one towards the district of Tanintharyi.

Warnings

- tonight after 15/18utc heavy showery/thundery outbreaks may affect the Southern parts of the district of Ayeyarwaddy

Meteogram | Pressure | Relative Humidity | Cloud Cover | Precipitation | Satellite Image | Surface Wind | Temperature

Meteogram

Bagan: 21.2/94.9 (Airport) - Airfield forecast
- Weather: very cloudy but in general dry. As the day continues some convective clouds develop which can lead to some local showery/thundery outbreaks
- Clouds: 5-7/8 Sc between 2000-2500ft, Formation of 5-6/8 Cumulus with base around 2500ft, lifting to 3000ft.
- Visibility: good except during the showery outbreaks.
- Precipitation: less than 2mm
- Wind at surface: S 10-15kt gusting up to 20kt temporarily decreasing to 5-10kt. Again increasing after 12utc: S 10-15kt
- Wind at 1000ft: S 20kt
- Wind at 3000ft: SSE to S 15-20kt
- Wind at 5000ft: SSE 10-15kt
- Turbulence: in general light
- Outlook for 22 August: more convective development so the showery/thundery outbreaks are likely to be more active.

Province of Chin (Hakha: 22.6/93.6)
- Weather: mostly very cloudy to overcast with low clouds and outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. So pretty poor conditions prevail, no significant change. Poor visibility.
- Precipitation: less than 2mm
- Wind at surface: SE 4-6kt gradually becoming SE to E 8-12kt. After 12utc becoming ESE 10-15kt;
- Outlook tomorrow (22 Aug 2015): Still no significant change: very cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. Poor conditions.

Province of Magway (Mon Stream: 20.2/94.4)
- Weather: very cloudy with possibly some short lived sunny spells. Convective development results into showery/thundery outbreaks between 6 and 9utc. After 12utc in general remaining dry
- Precipitation: between 4 and 8mm
- Wind at surface: weak from variable directions after 9utc temporarily increasing to SW 10kt. Afterwards again becoming weak from variable directions
- Outlook tomorrow (22Aug 2015): Clouds will thicken up and significant precipitation is expected-prevailingly poor conditions

Province Sagaing (Kalewa: 23.2/94.3)
- Weather: very cloudy to overcast with a thick layer of low clouds, generating rain and showers for most of the day. After 12utc most rain will fall.
- Precipitation: a total of 10-20mm before 12utc, after 12utc between 30-40mm
- Wind at surface: weak from variable directions – no significant change
- Outlook tomorrow (22 Aug 2015): similar conditions with a thick layer of low clouds-continuous light rain or drizzle. Poor conditions prevail.

Province of Rakhine (Minbya: 20.4/93.3)
- Weather: low clouds and hardly any sun. Continuous rain or drizzle. Poor conditions prevail, after 15utc it becomes slightly drier
- Precipitation: in total of 20-30mm can fall but more towards the coast and to the North more rainfall is likely
- Wind at surface: SE 5-10kt after 9utc increasing to SE 10-15kt
- Outlook tomorrow (22 Aug 2015): overall conditions will improve: the cloud cover becomes thinner so a few weak sunny spells are possible. Still some slight rain and a few showery outbreaks

Province of Ayeyarwaddy (Maubin: 16.7/95.6)
- Weather: mostly very cloudy to overcast with rain in the beginning of the day. Than possibly a dry spell but soon convective clouds develop which results in showery outbreaks. Especially after 15/18utc some heavy precip may fall
- Precipitation: between 00 and 12utc: 15-20mm – after 12utc: 20-30mm
- Wind at surface: SW 10-15kt gusting 20-25kt – between 9 and 12utc increasing to 15-20kt. After 12/15utc again becoming SSE 10kt.
- Outlook tomorrow (22 Aug 2015): poor conditions prevail: overcast with a thick layer of clouds: rain, showers and thundery outbreaks are likely.